Free template · Excel
The 13-week cash flow forecast
- · See your cash position week by week for the next three months
- · Spot a tight month while there's still time to act
- · The same template I use with every new client
Who this is for
Owners of businesses turning over roughly £1m–£15m who know their bank balance today but not what it will be in two months. It's especially useful if you have a VAT quarter, a corporation tax payment or a big supplier bill coming up, if a large customer pays slowly, or if you're about to hire or invest. You don't need a finance team to use it, just your bank statements and a list of what you're owed and what you owe.
What it measures
The forecast sets out, week by week for the next 13 weeks, the cash you expect to come in and the cash you expect to go out. Money in covers customer receipts and any other income. Money out covers wages, suppliers, rent, VAT, PAYE, corporation tax, loan repayments and owner drawings. Each week starts with the closing balance of the week before, so you can see your expected bank balance at every point in the next three months, not just at the end.
How to read your results
Look for the lowest closing balance across the 13 weeks, not the final figure. That's your tightest week, and it's usually caused by a tax payment, a payroll run or a slow-paying customer landing in the same week. If that low point is below the buffer you're comfortable with, you have weeks to act: chase a debtor, move a payment date, invoice sooner or arrange a facility before you need it. Roll the forecast forward every week, replacing estimates with actuals, and it gets more accurate the longer you use it.
Worked example: Brightwater Fabrications
Brightwater Fabrications is a fictional £4m manufacturer with £250,000 in the bank and a healthy profit. When it builds its 13-week forecast in November, one week stands out: the week ending 8 January. Its £90,000 corporation tax bill, a £72,000 VAT return and a £66,000 steel invoice for a large contract all fall due in the first week of January, after December has already taken the payroll early and the quarter-day rent. The forecast shows the balance dropping to £19,000, below its £50,000 buffer. Because Brightwater sees it eight weeks early, it agrees to pay the steel invoice two weeks later and asks its biggest customer for a stage payment. The low point moves to £133,000.
Sample results · PDF
See Brightwater's full results: every figure, what it told them and what they did next.
The same template, filled in for Brightwater, so you can see how every sheet works before you start your own.
Frequently asked questions
- Why 13 weeks?
- Thirteen weeks is a full quarter, which takes in at least one VAT payment, three payrolls and most customers' payment cycles. It's long enough to give you time to act and short enough to forecast with reasonable accuracy.
- I already have a budget. Why do I need this as well?
- A budget shows profit. This shows cash, and the two can be very different. A business can be on budget for profit and still run short of cash because customers pay late, stock builds up or a tax bill lands. The forecast shows you when the money actually moves.
- How long does it take to set up and keep going?
- Setting it up for the first time usually takes an afternoon. After that, updating it each week takes 20–30 minutes: put in what actually happened, then add a new week at the end.
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